KL's Top 10 Rotations in Habla

We asked our pitchers expert Knuckleball Lover to rank the top 10 rotations this season in Habla, since we had gotten into a discussion about it in the comments section. Here they are, with commentary the entire way. Also, this was written before last nights sim, so that is not taken into account.

Here’s my view of what I feel are the top 10 rotations in HABLA as of June 4th, the league date at which this was written. This isn’t just a list of the top 10 ERA, but I looked at the abilities of the pitchers in the rotation, its make-up, various stats including, of course, the pitcher’s ERA. One thing I don’t particularly weight is wins as that’s a factor of other facets besides the pitcher himself. A staff can be good, but not get the wins from inept offense or blown leads from the bullpen. Rotation ERA as a whole carried some somewhat heavy weight as well as this is an evaluation of the entire group.

I’m also trying to isolate the ability of the pitchers – which means that a staff with excellent defense behind them (Cardinals, for example) might be getting strongly assisted by said defense. Of course, the pitcher still gets some credit, and if the pitcher is a strikeout artist, defense isn’t as big a factor either way. However, defensive contribution will get mixed in if it appears to have been a big factor or as a bit of a “tie-breaker” between staffs that look close.

1. Philadelphia Phillies
Key Player: Adam Eaton – .180 OAvg, .212 OSlg, 10 of 12 QS

This staff was pretty close with Texas and was a tough decision. Both staffs pile up strike outs, give up few hits, and allow almost nothing in the way of extra bases. Still, I put Philly as the top staff because their OAvg are overall lower and do so with a slightly lower skill defense. Every member of this rotation is dominating and has been established from the start. Also impressive is 45 of 56 QS, which is tops in HABLA. What is scary is that this team’s bullpen has allowed about 30% IRS, which is above the expected average of 25%, according to most MLB sabermetricians.

2. Texas Rangers
Key Player: Brandon Webb – 2.89 ERA (Career 4.01)

The #2 staff in my view has the #3 ERA in HABLA. This team does a lot of things right on the mound, and the team ERA might be a large part the somewhat weak bullpen so far. Comer and Duren in particular have been bad so far. Anyway, the starters are very strong, and I named Webb as the key player because he’s so far below his normal ERA. As a whole, most of what’s said about Philly’s staff applies here, although they do have a bit better defense behind them. Fernando Valenzuela is looking strong in the rotation, as well, but needs a few more good starts to prove himself.

3. Boston Red Sox
Key Player: Tony Livingston – 2.46 ERA, .233 OAvg, 10 of 12 QS

Here’s the first staff on the list that I had to give weight to their defensive play. It’s not so much the ratings, however, but relatively low strike out rates as a rotation which indicates that the defense had a lot of work to do. The team’s OAvg stats from the starters show that the defense did that work well. Honeycutt and Sherrid in particular have gotten a lot of help from their defense. Honeycutt’s BABIP is .247, far below the typical level, while Sherrid’s is .243. Of all the teams with 3.50 or lower ERAs, Boston’s staff has picked up the fewest amount of strike outs. Tony Livingston, however, has been outright dominating so far. His ability to keep it up will be big to Boston’s fortunes.

4. Seattle Mariners
Key Player: Nolan Ryan – 1.62 ERA, .275 OSlg, 10 of 12 QS

Wow – there’s not many starting pitchers that have done what Nolan has done so far. His .275 OSlg allowed ranks him 8th in the AL in that category, and it leads the Seattle staff, by far. Now, I almost put Milwaukee here because the Brewers have had a better consistency from their top 3, but I had a hard time putting aside Nolan’s performance every 5 days. Sid Fernandez has actually been a better pitcher, aside from ERA, than Sullivan and should be a good partner to Nolan, while Sullivan has shown a consistent ability to give 6+ strong innings with his 8 of 10 QS. The 5th starter hasn’t been a stable situation so far, but I think the sheer dominance of Nolan outweighs that, and goes a long way to stopping losing streaks and starting winning ones, an important trait for any rotation.

5. St. Louis Cardinals
Key Player: Alvin Crowder - .213 OAvg, .220 BABIP

Crowder is the poster-child for defense right now. While the Cardinals always seem to have 6 or 7 gold glove caliber defenders (while the other 1 or 2 are “just” very good), Crowder is getting some big benefit from them, even by Cardinals standards. His .220 BABIP has been a big part of success – which comes in big part from the defense. Shane Loux is another that’s been greatly assisted by defense, allowing a .247 BABIP. Still, there are pitchers like McDonald and Dravecky that have done some of their own work out there, and Jamie Navarro’s performance so far shows promise. Each of the starters has posted a very solid QS% as well. The OSlg in the rotation might have been impacted by ballpark some, but they are strong nonetheless and strong from first to fifth.

Sixth and beyond on the list started getting into more “gray areas” such as defense, other rate stats, and overall spread of ERA and QS%. As such, most of these rotations are really close to each other in performance to this point.

6. Milwaukee Brewers
Key Player: Derek Lowe – .221 OAvg, .340 OSlg, but 4.10 ERA

Something has to give with Lowe, and how he ends up could determine how much the rotation will help the Brewers compete in the AL Central. He opponent average against and his slugging allowed just don’t say “four ERA” to me. Is he just getting ‘unlucky’ so far, or is the ERA a sign of what’s to come? Fortunately, the team has gotten performance from three solid members of the rotation, and that’s a good base for any team to work from. Another team that doesn’t induce many strike outs, and their defense is “only” average to slight above average overall, so the pitchers will have to keep putting the hitters off-balance to make things easier on their fielders. So far, they have done just that…at least everyone except Higuera, who might be the “anti-Lowe” as his OAvg (.299) and OSlug (.488) seem high for a 4.05 ERA.

7. Florida Marlins
Key Player: Shawn Boskie – 2.50 ERA, .219 OAvg, .313 OSlg, 8 of 11 QS

The 7th spot goes to the Marlins in large part to their strike out rates (three starters have 9.0 or higher K/9 rates) and the play of Shawn Boskie. What almost knocked them down was the play of Rich Harden. He looks to have pitched better than a nearly 5.00 ERA, given his K’s rate and .395 OSlg. Boskie and Grimes formed a nice combination in the rotation, linking up for 17 QS in 23 combined starts – very nice.

The stat that knocked this rotation down some was the QS% of the other three starters, holding at an even 50%. Not bad, but that number would like to be higher for a consistent, playoff-quality rotation.

8. Detroit Tigers
Key Player: Grant Balfour – 3.21 ERA, .269 OAvg, 7 of 12 QS

This team doesn’t have a standout stopper so far, but the team has five solid pitchers in their rotation. While having an ace stopper or two is great, there’s something to be said for knowing you’ll get a solid 6+ innings from every arm in your rotation. Grant Balfour has put up the lowest ERA in the rotation and his .367 Slugging allowed isn’t bad either. The 22-year old will have to keep it up, otherwise one of the veterans will need to step up and carry the load. Chris Short looks like one who could step up. His 7 of 11 QS rate is a good sign. If Bob Friend can develop some consistency with the length of his outings, then this rotation can really be a stable, solid foundation every night out.

9. Minnesota Twins
Key Player: Dennis Eckersley – 3.38 ERA, .369 OSlg, 4 of 11 QS

Wow, is there any stranger set of stats on an above-average pitcher than what Eckersley has done so far? Only 4 of 11 QS, but a team-leading 3 CG? Such a weak QS%, but a solidly good 3.38 ERA? A hurler of his caliber of pitches with a solid defense behind him allowing more than one hit per inning? Such a strange collection of stats! It would seem that something has to give with him, but he’s gotten it done to this point. The main thing that put this rotation 9th is their OAvgs. Given the defense behind them is solid to excellent in some places, Glavine and Van Hekken should have performed better, given their skills. By contrast, Warren Spahn has pitched the best of them all according to the rate stats, but has the highest ERA in the rotation. Certainly should be an interesting staff to watch down the line, and they’ve done well enough thus far, but haven’t seemed to gel just yet.

10. Houston Astros
Key Player: Roy Oswalt - .229 OAvg, .314 OSlg, 8 of 12 QS

A case probably could be made for this rotation to be higher on the list. The biggest strike against them is walks allowed. Basically, every starter has walked at least 20 batters (there’s two starters with 19 walks). That doesn’t sound like a lot, but given the walk totals by pitchers in the league as a whole, it can be pretty significant of an amount, especially the rate Backe has given up in the walk column. Other than that, this rotation has two higher-caliber starters in Hill and Oswalt, with Oswalt having played better of the two so far. Backe and Young have nice OAvg and OSlg stats, especially on pitchers with 4.00 ERAs. Perhaps a bit of “bad luck” along the way has caused them to have ERAs that seem high.

Honorable Mentions:

Colorado Rockies – Given where they play, they’ve done pretty well. Early Wynn needs to settle down and Jack Fischer needs to take the opportunity to help solidify the back end.

Cincinnati Reds – This team should have made the list. Hough is better than a 4.11 ERA as is Nichols. McGinnity has been solid and Krukow even better, but the rotation seems to be in one of those “we don’t feel like playing” funks, something I’ve had the ‘pleasure’ of seeing a few too many times.

Cleveland Indians – Is there something with teams whose cities start with C? Anyway, if Ditmar and Vogelsong had performed better, this team probably could have been #10 on the list.

San Francisco – A team with decent starters headed up by Carl Eldred. This team nearly made the list, but Perry’s 4.50 ERA and general lack of any truly standout areas hurt the team’s ranking.