Scott's Pitching Breakdown

Scott has written a great article for math nerds like me that takes a look at the raw statistics and judges the pitching staffs, both starters and bullpens, in Habla. Check it out.

It’s time for a little statistical analysis inspired from KL’s synopsis of the best rotations in the league. I’m a bit of a novice sabremetrician, which means I like to take the raw numbers from baseball and try and make some sense out of them. For this little exercise here, I’m going to try and quantify the best pitching STAFFs in HABLA. To do this I will be using three metrics combined to give us a final “score” for each staff. All stats are taken through June 17th 2029. Here are the metrics.

Dominance : To calculate a team’s dominance score, you simply divide the number of strikeouts the staff has racked up by the number of walks they’ve issued. Dominance indicates how well the staff is at minimizing “free” bases (walks) and balls in play. The higher, the better.

League Average: 2.6
Top 3 teams: Texas (3.6), Philadelphia (3.5), Pittsburgh (3.4)
Bottom 3 teams: Toronto (1.6), Detroit (1.9), Baltimore (2.0)

HR/9 : Home runs per nine innings is exactly what it says, the number of home runs the staff will give up over a complete 9 inning game. A HR is the most dangerous hit in the game as no amount of good fielding can prevent it (save for the statistically insignifigant fantastic leaping catches). As such, it is a very telling metric as to how well a staff can minimize this damage. Obviously, the lower the number, the better.

League Average: 1.3
Top 3 teams: Boston (0.9), Philadelphia (0.9), Los Angeles (0.9)
Bottom 3 teams: Pittsburgh (1.9), Chicago(N) (1.7), San Diego (1.6)

Strand % : To determine the percentage of runners stranded by the bullpen, you subtract the number of inherited runners who scored from the total number of inherited runners. Then you divide this number by the total number of inherited runners. In MLB, this metric is viewed as a “luck” metric in that ALL teams regardless of skill should be around the league average of 72%. Those above and below are there because of good or bad luck and will likely move towards the norm. However, in HABLA, this is more an indicator of how well a bullpen can “get out of jams” (part of their ScPos and C&L ratings) and minimize the damage a spent pitcher has done putting runners on base. The higher the percentage, the more effective your bullpen is at closing the doors.

League Average: 69%
Top 3 teams: Oakland (78%), Seattle (77%), Boston (76%)
Bottom 3 teams: Kansas City (55%), New York(N) (58%), Atlanta (60%)

Results

So, now I’m going to take all those numbers, cram them into a formula, and give you the best 10 staffs in HABLA. Ready? Drum roll please ….

10. Los Angeles Dodgers (1.007 staff score)
9. Cleveland Indians (1.011 staff score)
8. Pittsburgh Pirates (1.012 staff score)
7. New York Mets (1.018 staff score)
6. Seattle Mariners (1.301 staff score)
5. Minnesota Twins (1.368 staff score)
4. Boston Red Sox (1.402 staff score)
3. Florida Marlins (1.641 staff score)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (1.738 staff score)
1. Texas Rangers (1.739 staff score)

There you have it. There were certainly some suprises on the list like the sub-.500 Mets, who have had more than their share of rotten luck on the mound this season. Or that the NL wildcard leading Expos are 23rd on the list (0.565 staff score), but that’s how sabremetrics goes, you don’t always know what the end result will show. And finally, a moment of silence for the staff of the Blue Jays who came in with the lowest staff score (0.102.) I’m sure they’ll be able to improve that with the first
overall pick in the draft :)