Thursday, August 31, 2006

Who They Should Have Taken: 2022

We bring you our favorite game again, this time to look at the draft from 2022. It was a good draft and a lot of fun to review, so take a look and share your comments.


Here
is the link to the Draft file.











The First Overall Pick

Team: New York Yankees

Who they picked: 3B Orlando Cepeda

Who they should have picked: 3B Orlando Cepeda

Though Cepeda got out to a slow start and made owners wonder if he was going to be a bust after his first 2 seasons, Cepeda has turned it on ever since and has not looked back. Ranked the top 3B in Habla 2 years ago, Cepeda routinely smashes 40 HR and 100 RBI while playing good defense at 3rd base. Cepeda turned out to be a great 1st overall pick for the Yankees. Anytime you can get the best player at a certain position in Habla, get him.

The Second Overall Pick

Team: Colorado Rockies

Who They picked: P Art Mahaffey

This draft had a lot of good pitching in it, as you will see. At first glance, Mahaffey looks like a good pick at number 2, and he is a pretty good pick. We felt, however, that there were 3 other pitchers better at this point that would have been better to take.

Who they should have picked: P Jim Perry

Perry has struggled the last season and a half, but that doesn't take away the fact that he was a perennial Cy Young Candidate for the Reds 6 seasons in a row. In that 6 year span that was Koufax-esque, Perry never had an ERA above 3.12 and one year had a 2.39. He also had double digit wins every year, peaking at 19 in 2027 and once had an OAVG of .196. With all of that success, you would think he would turn it around and return to form soon for the Giants. Nonetheless, we think he would have been a great pick 2nd overall for the Rockies.

The Third Overall Pick

Team: Kansas City Royals

Who they Picked: P Mark Gubicza

Gubicza is another decent pick at this point in the draft, but again, we feel that there were better pitchers out there. Gubicza is still a top 10 talent, but probably not a top 3 talent. More on him to come.

Who they should have taken: P Dave Dravecky

Dave Dravecky has been lights out almost every year he has been in the majors. Since putting up a 4.80 ERA and a losing record in his Sophomore season, he has posted 5 seasons with a 3.42 ERA or better. Last season saw him go 16-9 with a 2.13 and 28 quality starts. If he were to get some more run support, he could conceivably win 25 games pitching the way he did last year. With so much success and a bright future, Dravecky would have been a great 3rd overall pick for the Royals.

The Fourth Overall Pick

Team: Philadelphia Phillies

Who they picked: 1B Kevin Hunt

The interesting thing about this pick, 4th overall is that a nearly identical player, John Karpel, who has actually out performed Hunt, was taken 114 picks later, with the 6th pick in the 4th round. That pretty much tells you what you need to know about Kevin Hunt. He has never hit .300 and has hit 20 HR only once, double digit HR only 3 times. With everyone left on the board at this point, it is much too early to take a slightly below average first baseman.

Who they should have picked: P Bobby Witt

Witt could easily be the 3rd overall pick as well. Where he hasn't shown the dominance of Dravecky, Witt has been more consistent, never having a bad year. A career 3.46 ERA and 20 or more QS in 5 of 7 seasons, as well as 98 victories in 7 seasons, make Bobby Witt a fantastic pick at 4th overall.

The Fifth Overall Pick

Team: Texas Rangers

Who they picked: RF Lance Berkman

Who they should have picked: RF Lance Berkman

Berkman is a flat out great player to stick in the middle of your lineup. With a career .308 AVG, and averaging 34 homers and 111 RBI per year, Berkman becomes a guy that pitchers hope to pitch around. An adequate outfielder who has missed only 1 game in his career, make Berkman a great pickup 5th overall for the Rangers.

The Sixth Overall Pick

Team: Cincinnati Reds

Who they picked: P Jim Perry

Perry was a fantastic pick and a steal for where they got him, considering the numbers he put up for the Reds. But, we like to stir it up, and Perry is already gone.

Who they should have picked: SS Woodie Held

Woodie Held will quite possibly give AROD a run for his money for the title of greatest offensive shortstop in Habla history. In 6 seasons, Held has hit at least 30 homers every year and has hit 40 or more 3 times. He is no gold glover, but a solid defender. He hits like an outfielder but plays short, second, or third fairly well. With a bat and versatility like that, Held is a great pick 6th overall, and could have gone higher if Texas needed a SS.

The Seventh Overall Pick

Team: Boston Red Sox

Who they picked: SS Spike Owen

Owen is another good short stop in this draft, and is not a bad pick here. We definitely think there are better players here than Owen. If a team was in desperate need of a SS, Owen would make sense because of his awesome defense, arm, and solid bat. But as for best available, there are others.

Who they should have picked: P Mike Gubicza

Back to Gubicza. He has been a very solid middle of the rotation type starter in his career. With an ERA of 3.55, twice under 3.00, and 4 of 6 seasons of at least 20 QS, he has been a very reliable starter. He is the kind of guy you want to draft at this point of the draft, and would have been a great pickup for the Sox.

The Eighth Overall Pick

Team: Oakland A's

Who they picked: 3B Bill Mazeroski

Mezeroski has struggled for playing time in his career, only playing 2 full seasons thus far in his career. One has been spectacular, the other one only decent. Since we don't know which is the real Mazeroski, we are forced to recommend someone else here.

Who they should have taken: RP Roy Face

Face was named the best reliever in Habla in the blog rankings 2 years ago. At a time when so many bullpens are in disarray, Face would be a much welcomed addition to any team. A career 2.50 ERA and with more than a K per inning of work, Face rises to the top of the relieving core in Habla.

The Ninth Overall Pick

Team: Atlanta Braves

Who they picked: P Vern Law

It is time once again for the bust of the draft. Law looked like a for sure top 10 pitcher in this draft based on his pitches and the talent he possessed. With an ERA over 5 and no success of any kind either starting or in the bullpen, it appears that this 9th overall pick was wasted by the Braves, and it is nobody's fault but the game's.

Who they should have picked: P Art Mahaffey

And now, back to Mahaffey, who after a rough start to his career, came back to win 20 games in 2026, and then a 2.82 ERA a few years later. Another middle of the rotation type guy who has shown that he has flashes of greatness, Mahaffey would have been a good pickup at this point.

The Tenth Overall Pick

Team: Chicago White Sox

Who they picked: LF Charlie Konikowski

'Ol Charlie K is not a bad pick here for most drafts, hitting 20 homers regularly. However, this draft is deeper than most, and we like someone else here.

Who they should have picked: LF John Liska

A candidate for steal of the draft, Liska was taken with the 11th pick in the 2nd round. With 3 straight seasons of at least 32 homers, Liska has proven that he is a very solid hitter in the middle of a lineup. Liska would have been a great pickup at this pick for the White Sox.

Draft Awards

Steal of the Draft: 2B Toby Harrah (taken 23rd in the 4th round)

Bust of the Draft: P Vern Law

Best Name: There are so many great names in this draft, take your pick.

Iron Man McGinnity
Jim Bear Omens
Oddibe McDowell
Rip Repulski
Chico Esquela
Frank Funk

Player highlight: RP Frank Funk

With only 34.1 innings in the last 2 years, Frank Funk supplements his income with his other passion besides baseball...Disc Jockeying for Discos. That's right, for $29.99 an hour, you can hire Frank Funk's Funkmaster DJ service to spice up your next birthday party or Barmitsvah. He will break out the freshest licks on his more than 3,000 vinyl records to make your event a rockin' hit. For more info, just call "The Funkmaster" at 555-0123.


Draft Score (The Lower the Better)

67- A couple of busts high in the draft did them in.

Fun Facts

12 of 28 1st round picks remain on the team that drafted them.

This draft had the most cool names of any draft in history.

This draft saw more good player come out of the 2nd through 5th rounds than any draft in recent memory.

This draft had more good relievers in it than any other in recent memory.

All 3 of NYA 1st round picks (Cepeda, Pena, and Stock) remain on the Yankees as important parts of the team.

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Who "Should" be in the All Star Game

Jeff and I have teamed up on this article about who should be in the All Star Game here at the midway point. Jeff has done the NL, I the AL. Check it out and see which of your guys made it.

As we all know BBPro doesn't always get it right with regard to who gets into the All Star game.

This article will pick the players who should be in the game.

Selection process is limited to two players per position and seven pitchers 4 starters 3 relievers.

National League

1) C Matt Lecroy PGH He won't likely be in the game due to being on the DL, and will probably not be available. LeCroy may be the dominant NL catcher for the next few years. Although something of a late bloomer, the friendly confines of Three Rivers Stadium are making him into a hitting machine.

2) C Brandon Inge CIN is a notch below LeCroy and since Matt is out with injury should be the NL starter. Another solid year at this point for the Reds backstop as he is on pace for a 30 HR season.

1) 1b Lou Gehrig CIN is feasting as he has never done in the AL off of the pitching in the senior circuit. Consider that Lou has been hitting at a .400 clip and is on pace to hit over 70 homers and drive in 160 runs, he is a shoo in at this point for MVP.

2) 1b Tony Perez CHN is another AL transport, and is hitting at a sizzling .391 average. Injuries have slowed Tony down, but he still is a good bet to hit between 40 and 50 homers and drive in 100 to 120 runs.

1) 2b Charlie Gehringer MON is having a whale of a season in Montreal. Enjoying his best season in years, and the past ones weren't too bad, Charlie is boasting and .317 average, has hit 20 HR's and driven in an amazing 65 runs.

2) 2b Rex Hudler PHI nudges out a host, and there are about six other players who could easily fill this spot as the backup NL 2b. Hudler's combination of speed, power and average give him the nudge, particularly when you consider the amount of games he's missed while being on the DL.

1) 3b Larry Carey COL narrowly edges out Miguel Cabrerra for the nod as the 3b starter.the The leading factors are his relatively higher range factor at 3b, a solid fielding percentage and having even higher numbers than Cabrerra in Productivity, TA and Slugging. Considering that he had close to 100 AB less than the Reds hot corner specialist, the numbers that Carey has put up are even more impressive.

2) 3b Miguel Cabrerra CIN wins the nod for the second spot at the hot corner in face of some pretty good players. The stats that jumps out are the .355 average and 21 homers. Cabrerra is on pace for a 40 HR season.

1) SS Spike Owen FLO This choice will tick a lot of peopl off, but Owen is the best choice. We were tempted to go with Ozzie Smith, who is having an amazing power year with 10 HR's, go figure that one out, and can't be touched by anyone in fielding, other than Spike Owen. Owen's Fld % of .995 is the best in the NL and his RF is the only one that compares to Smith's godlike 5.5 with his 4.7. When you factor in Spike's 23 HR's and 69 RBIs you can see why he gets the nod for SS.

2) Woodie Held PGH leads the pack and if this were based purely on offensive production he'd win hands down. However, fielding is vital in the Middle IF position so Held's very impressive offensive numbers, which are with BA withstanding matched or bettered by Owen, leave him a little short in our nod for starting SS.

1) LF Roosevelt Brown CHN Brown leads the pack of some pretty good outfielders for LF. He's hitting at a torrid .330, is on a pace to knock out 50 HRs and drive in close to 150 runs. All in all, Brown has become a major force in the NL.

2) Jose Canseco CIN has to be considered when you take in the 30 HR's he has bashed out of Riverfront Stadium. He face a lot of competition, and a case can be made for a number of other players, but Canseco nudges them out.

1) Roy Hobbs LA nudges out Turkey Stearnes and Tim Raines for the starting job in CF. Hobbs, Stearnes and Raines are close in offensive categories, but Hobbs gets the nod by leading in Avg, Runs, 2bs, RBIs. PRO. While Raines and Stearnes are right there with Hobbs, and Raines even managed to outproduce all in some areas, the margin is so close that Hobbs' overall ratings, and importantly perfect defense gives him the first slot.

2) Turkey Stearnes CHN has to be chosen over Raines for the second slot. The final reason came to the overall defensive play of these two dead even players in offensive categories. Raines' 8 errors, knocked him out of the competition.

1) Randy Birch MON The old veteran has come up as the big gun on the locked and loaded Montreal offense. Birch leads the RF in the NL in PRO, TA, and SLG. He has also played solid defense not having committed a single error this year.

2) Enos Slaughter PGH shocks the HABLA world as Ruth and Parker are shut out for the first time in anyone's memory. Slaughter has exceeded everyone's expectation batting a hot .367 to lead the RF contingent, and scoring 66 runs. Babe Ruth has come out of the morass he was in, with a vengeance, but Slaughter has been doing the job all year long.

Pitchers:
Adam Eaton Philly
Joe Kennedy LA
Josh Becket MON
Mike Krukow CIN

Relievers:
Mike Timlin FLO
Josh Fogg ATL
Pat Acker HOU

American League

1. C Roy Campanella (SEA) Still a dominant force behind the plate as the sun sets on his career, Roy is hitting .329 with 13 longballs and 59 RBI's and remains a central part of the Mariners offense.

2. C Tim DeCinces (NYA) Tim does well in the potent New York offense hitting .315 with 10 homers, 29 runs, and a .991 fielding percentage. He is more than a role player for this team.

1. 1B Raphael Palmiero (CLE) 66 RBI's puts him in the top ten in the AL. they go nicely with 22 homers and a .330 AVG.

2. 1B John Karpel (CHA) Also on the top ten in RBI (68) Karpel was having something of a breakout year before going on the DL recently. He will watch from the duggout.

1. 2B Craig Biggio (TEX) Biggio has had a great year setting the table for the Rangers offense and will get the opportunity to do that in the All star game as well. He has hit .324, scored 75 runs, and stolen 26 bases.

2. 2B Johnny Hodapp (BAL) Hodapp has stepped it up this year hitting for a .321 AVG and stealing 14 bases as the second baseman for Baltimore. He will back up Biggio in the Midsummer Classic.

1. 3B Orlando Cepeda (NYA) Cepeda is a monster this season, hitting .363 with 27 homers and 74 RBI's. He is top 3 in the AL in all of those categories, and a Triple Crown is not out of the question.

2. 3B Matt Williams (CLE) This youngster makes his first All star Game after hitting .312 with 16 homers in the first half.

1. SS Robin Yount (CLE) Hitting .344 with 21 homers is great for an OF, but it is spectacular for a SS, who may hit 40 homers by seasons end. He has also scored 70 runs and stolen 18 bases.

2. SS Barry Larkin (OAK) His AVG is not yet great, but the 17 homers and 24 SB's make him a great choice for the backup to Yount.

1. LF Henry Aaron (TEX) Aaron is the offensive leader of one of the most potent offenses in baseball. He starts in left with his 25 homers and 75 RBIs.

2. LF Stan Musial (OAK) Stan the Man is 2nd in AVG in the AL (.362) and has contributed 57 RBIs to the cause for his team in the first half.

1. CF Duke Snider (MIN) If his AVG were higher, he would have a great shot at the Triple Crown. But his "meager" .334 AVG and the fact that he was recently placed on the DL may hurt that. It is still up in the air whether Duke will be able to play in the game.

2. CF Tris Speaker (TEX) Tris has found his niche 2nd in the order now 3rd on his team with 47 RBIs and 3rd in the league in stolen bases (28)

1. RF Reggie Jackson (NYA) Reggie is but another of the Yankee sluggers that is tearing up the league. .342/29/82 at the break. Wow!

2. RF/DH Larry Walker (OAK) Larry will get the start at DH. He is doing it all this season. .340/22/72 with 24 SB.

Pitchers:
Nolan Ryan (SEA)
Ralph Terry (MIL)
Andy Van Hekken (MIN)
Kevin Ritz (BAL)

Relievers:
Jung Bong (BOS)
David Riske (MIL)
Jose Vizcaino (CLE)

Friday, August 25, 2006

Scored!

Justin Hair has followed suit and posted this article that involved number crunching for the offensive side of the ball. Check it out. It is quite interesting.

Here is some more number crunching for everyone. This week I deal with who is the leagues best scoring teams if everyone played in a 'neutral stadium.' This will tell you which ball park allows more runs to score than others.

Here is the forumla I used:
1) RunsFor + RunsAgainst = Your Run Total: You do this for every team in the league (NL only and AL only)
2) (You Run Total+everyone elses run total)/14=TotalRunTotalAvg
3) Your Run Total / TotalRunTotalAvg = X
4) RunsFor * X = AdjustedRunsFor
5) Runs Against * X = AdjustedRunsAgainst

Example:
Colorado Rockies:
474+384=858
All NL run total avg = 787
858/787=1.090216
474 * 1.090216 = 434
384 * 1.090216 = 352
So Colorado would have only scored 434 runs in a neutral ball park and their opponents would have scored only 352 runs.

Adjusted Run Scored for the NL. From Best to Worst:

1. Philadelphia Phillies 483 For and 303 Against
2. Colorado Rockies 434 For and 352 Against
3. LA Dodgers 418 For and 368 Against
4. Montreal Expos 411 For and 375 Against
5. Houston Astros 407 For and 379 Against
6. Cincinnatti Reds 401 For and 385 Against
7. Pittsburgh Pirates 400 For and 386 Against
8. Florida Marlins 397 For and 388 Against
9. San Francisco Giants 392 For and 394 Against
10. St. Louis Cardinals 387 For and 399 Against
11. Chicago Cubs 363 For and 423 Against
12. New York Mets 361 For and 425 Against
13. Atlanta Braves 338 For and 448 Against
14. San Diego Padres 312 For and 474 Against

Adjusted Run Scored for the AL. From Best to Worst:

1. Texas Rangers 451 For and 337 Against
2. Boston Red Sox 444 For and 344 Against
3. Oakland Athletics 431 For and 357 Against
4. Minnesota Twins 424 For and 364 Against
5. Milwaukee Brewers 413 For and 375 Against
6. Seattle Mariners 413 For and 375 Against
7. Chicago White Sox 409 For and 379 Against
8. Cleveland Indians 407 For and 381 Against
9. Detroit Tigers 407 For and 381 Against
10. New York Yankees For 404 and 384 Against
11. Anahiem Angels 341 For and 447 Against
12. Baltimore Orioles 339 For and 449 Against
13. Kansas City Royals 328 For and 460 Against
14. Toronto Blue Jays 324 For and 464 Against

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Scott's Pitching Breakdown

Scott has written a great article for math nerds like me that takes a look at the raw statistics and judges the pitching staffs, both starters and bullpens, in Habla. Check it out.

It’s time for a little statistical analysis inspired from KL’s synopsis of the best rotations in the league. I’m a bit of a novice sabremetrician, which means I like to take the raw numbers from baseball and try and make some sense out of them. For this little exercise here, I’m going to try and quantify the best pitching STAFFs in HABLA. To do this I will be using three metrics combined to give us a final “score” for each staff. All stats are taken through June 17th 2029. Here are the metrics.

Dominance : To calculate a team’s dominance score, you simply divide the number of strikeouts the staff has racked up by the number of walks they’ve issued. Dominance indicates how well the staff is at minimizing “free” bases (walks) and balls in play. The higher, the better.

League Average: 2.6
Top 3 teams: Texas (3.6), Philadelphia (3.5), Pittsburgh (3.4)
Bottom 3 teams: Toronto (1.6), Detroit (1.9), Baltimore (2.0)

HR/9 : Home runs per nine innings is exactly what it says, the number of home runs the staff will give up over a complete 9 inning game. A HR is the most dangerous hit in the game as no amount of good fielding can prevent it (save for the statistically insignifigant fantastic leaping catches). As such, it is a very telling metric as to how well a staff can minimize this damage. Obviously, the lower the number, the better.

League Average: 1.3
Top 3 teams: Boston (0.9), Philadelphia (0.9), Los Angeles (0.9)
Bottom 3 teams: Pittsburgh (1.9), Chicago(N) (1.7), San Diego (1.6)

Strand % : To determine the percentage of runners stranded by the bullpen, you subtract the number of inherited runners who scored from the total number of inherited runners. Then you divide this number by the total number of inherited runners. In MLB, this metric is viewed as a “luck” metric in that ALL teams regardless of skill should be around the league average of 72%. Those above and below are there because of good or bad luck and will likely move towards the norm. However, in HABLA, this is more an indicator of how well a bullpen can “get out of jams” (part of their ScPos and C&L ratings) and minimize the damage a spent pitcher has done putting runners on base. The higher the percentage, the more effective your bullpen is at closing the doors.

League Average: 69%
Top 3 teams: Oakland (78%), Seattle (77%), Boston (76%)
Bottom 3 teams: Kansas City (55%), New York(N) (58%), Atlanta (60%)

Results

So, now I’m going to take all those numbers, cram them into a formula, and give you the best 10 staffs in HABLA. Ready? Drum roll please ….

10. Los Angeles Dodgers (1.007 staff score)
9. Cleveland Indians (1.011 staff score)
8. Pittsburgh Pirates (1.012 staff score)
7. New York Mets (1.018 staff score)
6. Seattle Mariners (1.301 staff score)
5. Minnesota Twins (1.368 staff score)
4. Boston Red Sox (1.402 staff score)
3. Florida Marlins (1.641 staff score)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (1.738 staff score)
1. Texas Rangers (1.739 staff score)

There you have it. There were certainly some suprises on the list like the sub-.500 Mets, who have had more than their share of rotten luck on the mound this season. Or that the NL wildcard leading Expos are 23rd on the list (0.565 staff score), but that’s how sabremetrics goes, you don’t always know what the end result will show. And finally, a moment of silence for the staff of the Blue Jays who came in with the lowest staff score (0.102.) I’m sure they’ll be able to improve that with the first
overall pick in the draft :)

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

The Owl's Power Rankings

There seems to be a rash of injuries to many of the
top teams. Let's take a look at the ratings:

1. Philadelphia- The Phillies still have the best
pitching in the majors and one of the top hitting
teams but
recent injuries could test this teams depth.

2. Texas- The Rangers are on of the Elite teams in the
league. The cream comes to the top.

3. Seattle- Recend slide appears to releated to the
injuries. Can they hang on?

4. Oakland- another AL West team is making a move for
a playoff run but will recent injuries slow down the
potent hitting.

5. Minnesota- Twins CF Duke Snider is having a career
year and he'll need for that to continue in the
competitive AL Central.

6. Montreal- Expos lead the NL in runs scored but will
a leaky bullpen destroy their playoff hopes?

7. Florida- Marlins need 3B Wright to recover from his
injury and hope he can return to form

8. Pittsburgh- Hitting carrying this team but so far
so good. If the rotation improves watch out.

9. Boston- Another team with an injury problem but the
Pitching remains strong

10.Chicago (AL)- 1B John Karpel making a name for
himself and the White Sox have made a move

11. San Francisco- The Loss of Booby Abreau for 2-3
months could kill want looks to be a break out season

12. Cincinnati- Reds are a player in the NL Central.
Talent is there.

13. New York (AL)- Yankees are heating up now that
they are injury free.

14. Colorado- Despite slow start team remains in the
NL West hunt

15. Los Angeles- Team may have Vets but that isn't a
bad thing. This team should be tough in the stretch

16. Houston- Astros 2B Toby Harrah leading the Astros
playoff charge.

17. Cleveland- Team in a slump and most of it is due
to the pitching staff.

18. Milwaukee- Another contender trying to hang
despite the recent injuries

19. Detroit- Balanced team that should be a player for
AL East for the season

20. St. Louis- Cardinals lacking last years magic but
the season isn't over

21. Chicago (NL)- Cubs are making progress and if it
continues the NL Central could be a 5 team race

22. Baltimore- Orioles are rebuilding and there are
some pieces in place.

23. Ney York (NL)- Mets need more hitting and bullpen
help.

24. Atlanta- Time to retool. Players just haven't
gotten it done.

25. Kansas City- Rebuilding has begun and let the
auditions begin.

26. Anahiem- Signs of improvement but a long ways to
go. But KL knew that when he took them over.

27. San Diego- Young pitchers paying their dues and
should be better next season

28. Toronto- Pitching woes continue to delay this
teams development.

Monday, August 21, 2006

The Top 10 Second Basemen in Habla 2029












1. Rex Hudler (PHI) Last Ranked-2

Easily the best hitting 2B in the league, who also steals a ton of bases and plays very solid defense.

2. Craig Biggio (TEX) LR-3

An MVP candidate 2 season ago, he's a virtual lock to score 120 runs and nab 40 bases when he's healthy, and lately he's been very healthy.

3. Charlie Gehringer (NYN) LR-4

After a pair of mediocre seasons with the Mets and Pirates, he's off to a great starts with the Expos, on pace for over 30 homers, 100 rbis and 45 stolen bases.
4. Toby Harrah (HOU) LR-6

A 4th Round steal in the 2022 draft, he's posted 4 consecutive 20 homerun seasons and now hits cleanup for his Astros.

5. B.J. Upton (CIN) LR-7

Very good fielder, baserunner, and hitter, had best season as a big leaguer last year and hopes to continue to develop his talents with the Red Sox.

6. Bill Doran (LA) LR-10

Has averaged 116 runs and 58 stolen bases over last 4 seasons, but is now feeling competition for playing time from solid rookie Luis Rivas.

7. Scott Hairston (CHA) LR-NR

Not the greatest fielder, but put it all together offensively last season hitting .330 with 36 thefts and an .861 OPS

8. Jack Rexrode (COL) LR-NR

Mr. Consistent, the Rockies leadoff guy has averaged 100 runs scored and 42 stolen bases over the last 7 years.

9. Paul Molitor (SEA) LR-5

Though, clearly no longer in his prime, he can still hit for a very good average and steal quite a few bases.

10. Ryne Sandberg (SEA) LR-NR

Never spectacular, but consistently solid for many years, someone the Brewers can count on to keep the bottom of their lineup very respectable.

Honorable Mention: Robbie Alomar (STL), Rickie Weeks (PGH), Brian Roberts (OAK), Johnny Hodapp (BAL)

Saturday, August 19, 2006

KL's Top 10 Rotations in Habla

We asked our pitchers expert Knuckleball Lover to rank the top 10 rotations this season in Habla, since we had gotten into a discussion about it in the comments section. Here they are, with commentary the entire way. Also, this was written before last nights sim, so that is not taken into account.

Here’s my view of what I feel are the top 10 rotations in HABLA as of June 4th, the league date at which this was written. This isn’t just a list of the top 10 ERA, but I looked at the abilities of the pitchers in the rotation, its make-up, various stats including, of course, the pitcher’s ERA. One thing I don’t particularly weight is wins as that’s a factor of other facets besides the pitcher himself. A staff can be good, but not get the wins from inept offense or blown leads from the bullpen. Rotation ERA as a whole carried some somewhat heavy weight as well as this is an evaluation of the entire group.

I’m also trying to isolate the ability of the pitchers – which means that a staff with excellent defense behind them (Cardinals, for example) might be getting strongly assisted by said defense. Of course, the pitcher still gets some credit, and if the pitcher is a strikeout artist, defense isn’t as big a factor either way. However, defensive contribution will get mixed in if it appears to have been a big factor or as a bit of a “tie-breaker” between staffs that look close.

1. Philadelphia Phillies
Key Player: Adam Eaton – .180 OAvg, .212 OSlg, 10 of 12 QS


This staff was pretty close with Texas and was a tough decision. Both staffs pile up strike outs, give up few hits, and allow almost nothing in the way of extra bases. Still, I put Philly as the top staff because their OAvg are overall lower and do so with a slightly lower skill defense. Every member of this rotation is dominating and has been established from the start. Also impressive is 45 of 56 QS, which is tops in HABLA. What is scary is that this team’s bullpen has allowed about 30% IRS, which is above the expected average of 25%, according to most MLB sabermetricians.

2. Texas Rangers
Key Player: Brandon Webb – 2.89 ERA (Career 4.01)


The #2 staff in my view has the #3 ERA in HABLA. This team does a lot of things right on the mound, and the team ERA might be a large part the somewhat weak bullpen so far. Comer and Duren in particular have been bad so far. Anyway, the starters are very strong, and I named Webb as the key player because he’s so far below his normal ERA. As a whole, most of what’s said about Philly’s staff applies here, although they do have a bit better defense behind them. Fernando Valenzuela is looking strong in the rotation, as well, but needs a few more good starts to prove himself.

3. Boston Red Sox
Key Player: Tony Livingston – 2.46 ERA, .233 OAvg, 10 of 12 QS


Here’s the first staff on the list that I had to give weight to their defensive play. It’s not so much the ratings, however, but relatively low strike out rates as a rotation which indicates that the defense had a lot of work to do. The team’s OAvg stats from the starters show that the defense did that work well. Honeycutt and Sherrid in particular have gotten a lot of help from their defense. Honeycutt’s BABIP is .247, far below the typical level, while Sherrid’s is .243. Of all the teams with 3.50 or lower ERAs, Boston’s staff has picked up the fewest amount of strike outs. Tony Livingston, however, has been outright dominating so far. His ability to keep it up will be big to Boston’s fortunes.

4. Seattle Mariners
Key Player: Nolan Ryan – 1.62 ERA, .275 OSlg, 10 of 12 QS


Wow – there’s not many starting pitchers that have done what Nolan has done so far. His .275 OSlg allowed ranks him 8th in the AL in that category, and it leads the Seattle staff, by far. Now, I almost put Milwaukee here because the Brewers have had a better consistency from their top 3, but I had a hard time putting aside Nolan’s performance every 5 days. Sid Fernandez has actually been a better pitcher, aside from ERA, than Sullivan and should be a good partner to Nolan, while Sullivan has shown a consistent ability to give 6+ strong innings with his 8 of 10 QS. The 5th starter hasn’t been a stable situation so far, but I think the sheer dominance of Nolan outweighs that, and goes a long way to stopping losing streaks and starting winning ones, an important trait for any rotation.

5. St. Louis Cardinals
Key Player: Alvin Crowder - .213 OAvg, .220 BABIP


Crowder is the poster-child for defense right now. While the Cardinals always seem to have 6 or 7 gold glove caliber defenders (while the other 1 or 2 are “just” very good), Crowder is getting some big benefit from them, even by Cardinals standards. His .220 BABIP has been a big part of success – which comes in big part from the defense. Shane Loux is another that’s been greatly assisted by defense, allowing a .247 BABIP. Still, there are pitchers like McDonald and Dravecky that have done some of their own work out there, and Jamie Navarro’s performance so far shows promise. Each of the starters has posted a very solid QS% as well. The OSlg in the rotation might have been impacted by ballpark some, but they are strong nonetheless and strong from first to fifth.

Sixth and beyond on the list started getting into more “gray areas” such as defense, other rate stats, and overall spread of ERA and QS%. As such, most of these rotations are really close to each other in performance to this point.

6. Milwaukee Brewers
Key Player: Derek Lowe – .221 OAvg, .340 OSlg, but 4.10 ERA


Something has to give with Lowe, and how he ends up could determine how much the rotation will help the Brewers compete in the AL Central. He opponent average against and his slugging allowed just don’t say “four ERA” to me. Is he just getting ‘unlucky’ so far, or is the ERA a sign of what’s to come? Fortunately, the team has gotten performance from three solid members of the rotation, and that’s a good base for any team to work from. Another team that doesn’t induce many strike outs, and their defense is “only” average to slight above average overall, so the pitchers will have to keep putting the hitters off-balance to make things easier on their fielders. So far, they have done just that…at least everyone except Higuera, who might be the “anti-Lowe” as his OAvg (.299) and OSlug (.488) seem high for a 4.05 ERA.

7. Florida Marlins
Key Player: Shawn Boskie – 2.50 ERA, .219 OAvg, .313 OSlg, 8 of 11 QS


The 7th spot goes to the Marlins in large part to their strike out rates (three starters have 9.0 or higher K/9 rates) and the play of Shawn Boskie. What almost knocked them down was the play of Rich Harden. He looks to have pitched better than a nearly 5.00 ERA, given his K’s rate and .395 OSlg. Boskie and Grimes formed a nice combination in the rotation, linking up for 17 QS in 23 combined starts – very nice.

The stat that knocked this rotation down some was the QS% of the other three starters, holding at an even 50%. Not bad, but that number would like to be higher for a consistent, playoff-quality rotation.

8. Detroit Tigers
Key Player: Grant Balfour – 3.21 ERA, .269 OAvg, 7 of 12 QS


This team doesn’t have a standout stopper so far, but the team has five solid pitchers in their rotation. While having an ace stopper or two is great, there’s something to be said for knowing you’ll get a solid 6+ innings from every arm in your rotation. Grant Balfour has put up the lowest ERA in the rotation and his .367 Slugging allowed isn’t bad either. The 22-year old will have to keep it up, otherwise one of the veterans will need to step up and carry the load. Chris Short looks like one who could step up. His 7 of 11 QS rate is a good sign. If Bob Friend can develop some consistency with the length of his outings, then this rotation can really be a stable, solid foundation every night out.

9. Minnesota Twins
Key Player: Dennis Eckersley – 3.38 ERA, .369 OSlg, 4 of 11 QS


Wow, is there any stranger set of stats on an above-average pitcher than what Eckersley has done so far? Only 4 of 11 QS, but a team-leading 3 CG? Such a weak QS%, but a solidly good 3.38 ERA? A hurler of his caliber of pitches with a solid defense behind him allowing more than one hit per inning? Such a strange collection of stats! It would seem that something has to give with him, but he’s gotten it done to this point. The main thing that put this rotation 9th is their OAvgs. Given the defense behind them is solid to excellent in some places, Glavine and Van Hekken should have performed better, given their skills. By contrast, Warren Spahn has pitched the best of them all according to the rate stats, but has the highest ERA in the rotation. Certainly should be an interesting staff to watch down the line, and they’ve done well enough thus far, but haven’t seemed to gel just yet.

10. Houston Astros
Key Player: Roy Oswalt - .229 OAvg, .314 OSlg, 8 of 12 QS


A case probably could be made for this rotation to be higher on the list. The biggest strike against them is walks allowed. Basically, every starter has walked at least 20 batters (there’s two starters with 19 walks). That doesn’t sound like a lot, but given the walk totals by pitchers in the league as a whole, it can be pretty significant of an amount, especially the rate Backe has given up in the walk column. Other than that, this rotation has two higher-caliber starters in Hill and Oswalt, with Oswalt having played better of the two so far. Backe and Young have nice OAvg and OSlg stats, especially on pitchers with 4.00 ERAs. Perhaps a bit of “bad luck” along the way has caused them to have ERAs that seem high.

Honorable Mentions:

Colorado Rockies – Given where they play, they’ve done pretty well. Early Wynn needs to settle down and Jack Fischer needs to take the opportunity to help solidify the back end.

Cincinnati Reds – This team should have made the list. Hough is better than a 4.11 ERA as is Nichols. McGinnity has been solid and Krukow even better, but the rotation seems to be in one of those “we don’t feel like playing” funks, something I’ve had the ‘pleasure’ of seeing a few too many times.

Cleveland Indians – Is there something with teams whose cities start with C? Anyway, if Ditmar and Vogelsong had performed better, this team probably could have been #10 on the list.

San Francisco – A team with decent starters headed up by Carl Eldred. This team nearly made the list, but Perry’s 4.50 ERA and general lack of any truly standout areas hurt the team’s ranking.

Thursday, August 17, 2006

A Summer of Heroes?

Hey guys. Our commissioner has decided to weigh in on every team in the league, predicting how they will in the season, and giving us a breakdown of every division. To put it in terms the modern baseball fan will understand, its kind of like power rankings on steroids. Check it out, and let us/him know what you think.

While many have been taking days off to go to the beach, many more have been filling HABLA stadiums this year, in what may be developing as one of the more memorable seasons to come down the pike. Although the season is still fresh, only one-third of the games have been played, if the league remains as even handed on the whole this could be one of the most competitive seasons in memory. Are there runaway divisions, yes, there are. No one will catch the Phillies, and while Seattle is giving it a valiant effort it is difficult to see any team in the AL West winning but Texas, which seems to have taken over Seattle's old role as perennial division champion. However, after those two, who lead the entire pack, there is a clamoring for position such as has not been seen in many years. There are a few teams that you can already write off, and most knew going in that the Braves, Mets, Cubs, Padres, Blue Jays, Royals, and Angels had no real chance of winning anything, and are all mostly playing to avoid 90 losses, rather than gain 90 wins. However, that leaves 19 teams who should be thinking if they have the stuff to make them a contender, or at the very least make a showing that will keep fans in the seats, or out of them cheering, throughout this summer.

For reference sake I have always looked at the following numbers to be benchmarks. Any team with over 90 wins, or a .555 Win Percentage is a solid team. Any team with over 97 wins or .600 is a potential champion. If a team can manage a .667 percentage, they move to the "Godlike" teams. Conversely, any team with over 90 losses, .444 or less is a weak team, and any team with over 97 losses .401 is a very poor team. However, a team with a winning pecentage of .333 or less is just plainly awful. Which leaves teams between 73 and 89 wins, or .444 through .554 as teams that are competitive, but need a bit of work here and there. Let's look at each division and see how the teams measure up.

NL East
This is one of the least competitive divisions in the league at this point, and has been for a few seasons.

Phillies - .714 they are godlike, and the only hope teams in NL have is to try to beat them in a short series. With their pitching it will be tough, but it can happen.
Florida - .559 A solid team that has not hit this year. They could be better and are improving.
Montreal - .536 A team on the cusp. Gary has done a great job bring back the bats, and also managing to find a few good arms. They are a starting pitcher away from being tough.
Mets - .399 A weak team, but they are starting to hit a bit better. Maybe the hapless manager of this club has found a combination that will give his young arms a few runs.
Braves - .362 The team is playing worse than they look, but maybe a closer look is needed.

NL Central
Traditionally the NL Central has been one of the best in the league, and although no team stands out, this is a GREAT division. The divisional play really makes this group of owners very tough, as it seems that year in year out a good race emerges here. Five teams, and even the Cubs can play. I think they are a step away from being right in the mix, and they are only ten games off the pace. Arguably the most competitive division in the league.

Houston - .554 Sam always seems to manage to find a way to get his team in the thick of it, and this year "small ball" is the method. Always a decent team
Reds - .537 Matt has changed the look of KB's team, and though it has been a bumpy road, the Reds are right there this year.
Cards - .526 Jer is one of the most studied GM's in the league, at least by the commissioner. No offense, but the pitching and fielding shine.
Pirates - .519 The new look Bucs are in the hunt, and showing a balanced style of play this year
Cubs - .375 Don't laugh this team off. The trades they have made this year, as well as some of the picks are going to return BIG for this club in the future, if not a turnaround this year.


NL West
Recently LA has had its lock on the title challenged by the Rockies, and the power in this division is in flux. This division is now wide open.

Giants - .554 Watch out for SF, seasons of poor records have brought in many hungry players who are talented. Many trades have changed the face of the Giants, but they seem to be very much for real, and with their youth they could be tough for a very long time.
Dodgers - .544 LA has gotten a bit longer in the tooth. Chris made this team a dynasty by the draft picks that he made when his team was poor, and they were among the worst in the league for awhile.
Rockies - .509 While LA has slipped Colorado has moved up the past few years, although their season thus far has been a bit of a disappointment.
Padres - .321 Possibly the worst team in the league, and going nowhere fast.

Overall look
Godlike - 1
Very Strong 0
Strong - 1
Competive - 8
Weak - 3
Awful - 1

Who's in the hunt
Let's look at the standings for that elusive fourth playoff spot.Bold means leading their division. If you look at these teams you will see that they are all equally matched with the other. This could be a great summer in the NL.

Marlins 33-26
Astros 31 - 25 0.5
Giants 31 - 25 0.5
Dodgers 31 - 26 1.0
Reds 29 - 25 1.0
Expos 30 - 26 1.5
Cards 30 - 27 2.0
Pirates 28 - 26 2.5
Rockies 29 - 28 3.0

The American league is not that different, but here it seems that the focus will be on winning the division as the Mariners are likely to run away with it in their probably futile chase of the Rangers.

AL East
This has traditionally been a weaker division in the league, and this remains the case today. However, it is also one of the most competitive with teams showing long trends. Right now the trend is Boston and NYA are ascending. Baltimore and Toronto are stuck in gear, and Detroit is an unknown. This will be a fun season in the AL East.

Boston .536 They've made a lot of deals and moves, but the combinations don't seem to be working yet. However, their staff makes them tough.
Detroit .534 Some good trades and a well experienced club. No names on the staff, but the veteran presence helps this team.
Yankees .500 They have the talent, but are struggling putting it together. Needs to look at the roster a bit more closely. They need a pitcher or two.
Orioles .407 Team was in a shambles financially, and have put a team of journeyman type players for this year. A lot of work needed here, but some trades may have helped.
Toronto .339 Team is actually showing signs of life. Owner needs to exercise patience and cultivate young talent.

AL Central
The Old Black N Blue earned it's name for the early years of HABLA where the clubs were typified by the Bad Boys of Chicago. The division is not as competitive in recent years, but is still strong. This is a VERY competitive division and will likely stay that way.

Indians .574 This club seems to disappear from the radar and then bounce back. They have survived a financial debacle. Clearly this team is like their owner, one of the most colorful of the league.
Twins - .571 They have greatly improved and are young and talented. They are streaky and very dangerous, but fall into lulls. The Twins and Indians may be fighting it out all year.
Brewers .519 Brew Crew never was the same after Rob left them. By far he is one of the greatest GM's in the league's history. Club went through a nadir and now seems to be ready to compete.
White Sox .474 The "Bad Boyz" are not the same as they were. They are leaner and faster, and GM Dinnis may be putting together a club that can make some noise very soon.
Royals - .357 The Dr. Jekyll Mr. Hyde of HABLA. I've never seen a time rise and fall so fast as this team. To put it mildly, they are entertaining.

AL West
Has been the runaway division from the league's inception. Seattle OWNED this division for years, then the Angels did. Now, Texas is in charge, and it may be awhile before anyone can force the title from their hand. Traditionally this is the least competitive division in the league.

Texas .696 This team is very strong and are the favorites to meet the Phils in the World Series. They are not in decline either as some would hope. They are young and well managed.
Seattle .632 The second best team in the AL has been wonderfully crafted. They can play with the Rangers, but are not likely to win the season. Hands down they are improving.
A's .526 They just can't get past the hump. They have the tools, but seem to never put it together. They are dangerous and can really cause other AL teams problems. In another division they would likely be the leaders.
Anaheim .339 KB is one of the best at building a team from scratch. He has his work cut out for him.

Overall Look
Godlike - 1
Very Strong 1
Strong - 2
Competitive - 6
Weak - 4
Awful - 0

Who's in the Hunt: Division leaders are bold
Mariners 36 - 21
Indians 31- 23 3.5
Twins 32 - 24 3.5
Red Sox 30 - 26 5.5
Tigers 31 - 27 5.5
A's 30 - 27 6.0
Yankees 29 - 29 7.5

Monday, August 14, 2006

Who They Should Have Taken: 2016

Here is our second attempt at playing our new favorite game. This time we go back a bit further, to 2016. Some of you will remember this draft. There were some surprises for sure. Check this out and see if you agree with our assessment.


Here
is the link to the Draft file.











The First Overall Pick

Team: Pittsburgh Pirates

Who they picked: OF Reggie Jackson

Who they should have picked: OF Reggie Jackson

This was during the streak that the Pirates had the first overall pick for about 9 consecutive years, and this was one of the few times they didn't blow it. Reggie was the stud of this draft, and Pittsburgh was smart and took him first overall. Unfortunately, he was traded to the Yankees before he was allowed an at bat in Pittsburgh and went on to hit nearly 500 HR for the Yanks over the next 11 seasons. You almost got one right Pittsburgh.


The Second Overall Pick

Team: Baltimore Orioles

Who They picked: SS Liu Rodriguez

This draft was loaded with shortstops (5 drafted in the first 29 picks), which worked out well for the Orioles who were in dire need of a warm body at short. Unfortunatley, they drafted the third best one with the 2nd overall pick. Lui also never had an at bat with the team that drafted him, but was shipped off to eventually play for both Chicago teams and has hit for a career .271 clip. #2 is awefully high for a middle of the pack shortstop.

Who they should have picked: 1B Tony Perez

If they insisted on drafting a SS, Ozzie Smith would have been the way to go. however, I think they would have been better drafting 1B Tony Perez. Granted they already had a young up-and-coming 1B on the team named Lou Gehrig, but it's the AL, and there is the DH rule, which would have been great for Perez considering his glove. How fiersome would the 3-4 combo of Gehrig/Perez have been? We will never know, but the 8 seasons of 30 or more HR that Perez put up lead me to believe it would have been fun to watch.


The Third Overall Pick

Team: Seattle Mariners

Who they Picked: RP Fransisco Rodriguez

Note to the newer owners...always send in a draft list. If you don't, you end up waisting your 3rd overall pick on a slightly better than average reliever. Serves him right though...you have got to send in a list.

Who they should have taken: 3B Brooks Robinson

Brooks Robinson has had a good long career with Montreal and Philly posting 10 seasons with 20 or more homers. Oh yeah, and he also has one of the best gloves you will ever see at third base.


The Fourth Overall Pick

Team: Cincinatti Reds

Who they picked: P Andy Van Hekken

Who they should have picked: P Andy Van Hekken

Now with 2 in a row, the Reds use the first one on junk baller Andy Van Hekken. This turned out to be a great move. Of course, they didn't keep him, but shipped him off to Montreal (and later Milwakee) where he put up 5 consecutive seasons with an ERA under 3.30. Despite being hot and cold lately, Van Hekken maintains a career 3.77 ERA.

The Fifth Overall Pick

Team: Cincinatti Reds

Who they picked: P Johan Santana

Johan wasn't a bad pick. He was also traded immediately (whats with all the trading, people?) to Pittsburgh where he pitched for nine seasons in the worst pitchers ballpark around. More on him in a sec.

Who they should have picked: SS Ozzie Smith

"The Wizard" ended up a Red eventually anyway, but they would have done good to pick him here. He is a pitchers dream, winning gold gloves with ease. He has also been very valuable at the plate and on the basepaths, where he has a .288 career AVG and almost 600 stolen bases in 12 seasons.

The Sixth Overall Pick

Team: Colorado Rockies

Who they picked: 3B Brooks Robinson

Brooks was a great pick, but in our game, he is already gone. Plus, they too traded him away before he saw the field. We should just call this draft "Trade City."

Who they should have picked: P Johan Santana

Back to Santana, after pitching 9 seasons in Pittsburgh and managing to keep his ERA near 4.00, he has moved onto LA where he has had 2 seasons in a row with an ERA below 3.00.

The Seventh Overall Pick

Team: New York Yankees

Who they picked: P Jarrod Washburn

It is time once again for the bust of the draft. Washburn was thought by some to be the best pitcher in the draft. Many were surprised that he fell this late. The Yankees were the unlucky team that thought they were getting a deal by nabbing him here. Unfortunately, Washburn has a career ERA of 4.91 and a losing record. He has had about three seasons where he was able to put it together and pitch well, but the bulk of his career has been very disappointing for a top 10 pick with high expectations.

Who they should have picked: SS Jasho Delaero

Dellaero is the 2nd best of the shortstops taken in this draft. On the seasons that he has been allowed to play full time, he has hit around .300 and stolen close to 40 bases. He is also a solid defender. Delaero is the kind of guy that plays better than his ratings. He would have been a good pickup for the Yankees.

The Eighth Overall Pick

Team: Texas Rangers

Who they picked: SS Ozzie Smith

Ozzie was a good pick, but he is gone. He played in Texas for severall years and found success, but was shiped out to cincy in a trade that brought P Oliver Perez to Texas. Perez won the AL Cy Young last season. Sorry, that was just a fun fact.

Who they should have taken: LF Roosevelt Brown

The Rangers ended up getting Brown in the 27th pick of the 2nd round, making him the steal of the draft. The truth is, he has played well enough to be a top 10 guy. In every full season that he has played, he has hit at least 23 homers, including five times over 30 and once hit 40. He hits around .275 and steals a few bases as well. The thing that turns owners off is that he is like Hellen Keller in the field. Fortunately, he plays left field, and we know you can stick any old hack out there and it doesn't make that much difference.

The Ninth Overall Pick

Team: Chicago Cubs

Who they picked: P Brendan Donnelly

Donnelly is nothing but a mediocre reliever that was drafted too high. When you think that Tony Perez, who we ranked as 2nd most valuable in this draft is still on the board, Donnelly's career 4.79 makes you cringe.

Who they should have picked: 1B Kieth Hernandez

Since Perez is long gone, we will go with the 2nd best first baseman in the draft. Hernandez has had a solid career at a position that is typically a power position. He has hit for high average and added a few homers as well. Not a bad pick up at this point as the talent thins.

The Tenth Overall Pick

Team: Boston Kansas City Royals

Who they picked: 1B Tony Perez

This may also be the steal of the draft. As we have mentioned above, Perez became a monster and has had a great long career of crushing balls and driving in rins. We will see him in the Habla HOF one day.

Who they should have picked: OF Michael Coleman

Coleman is a good all around outfielder. In 9 of his 10 seasons he has hit 20 or more HR and has a .282 career average. This is the kind of guy you want protecting the big slugger on your team.

Draft Awards

Steal of the Draft: OF Roosevelt Brown

Bust of the Draft: P Jarrod Washburn

Best Name: Hensley Meulens

'Ol Hensley likes to swing for the fences (92 PH), but rarely makes contact with anything (35 CH). His career .195 AVG shows us that the best thing he has going for him is a cool name. How much will you give me to name my first son Hensley?

Player highlight: CF Chip Sell

No, it's not a poker term, its the guy who has totaled 11 big league at bats over the last 2 seasons. In his spare time, Chip likes to frequent his local scrapbooking group where, despite the old ladies' warnings to go easy, he just can't lay off the glitter.

Draft Score (The Lower the Better)

61- They Drafted too many guys that should have been late 1st or 2nd rounders.

Fun Facts

Only 5 of 28 1st round picks remain on the team that drafted them.

From the best we can tell, this draft saw more shortstops go in the first round (4) than any other in recent memory.

Of the 3 first round picks used by the Rockies, 2 players remain on the team (Chip Sell and Kevin Haverbusch). Colorado's best pick of the draft, Brooks Robinson, never played for the Rockies.

Sunday, August 13, 2006

The Owl's Power Rankings

We Start a segment today we will run all year, where our eye in the sky, the Owl, breaks down the league by giving us power rankings. Here are questions to comment on: Who is too high? Who is too low? Who will change the most? Who will the surprise teams be? Here's the Owl.

Here we go for another season. Which teams will
surprise this year? Last year I'd have to say the Red
Sox and Cardinals were the two surprise teams.

1. Phillies- This team has been the most consistant
and dominant team in the NL the last three seasons and
in they had won one more game each of those leagues
you could include the the whole league as well. This
year the Pitching has been phemoninal. This team
never seems to slump.

2. Twins- Team had huge losses but Luke did some
dealing and so far the moves have paid off.

3. Rangers- Yawn, Team has the ability to win it all
again. I'll copy and paste this for the next 5
seasons

4. Mariners- They keep putting heat on the Rangers and
the rest of the league. They will be a factor.

5. Yankees- Yanks lead the Majors in runs scored but
the Pitching staff will have to improve before this
team is a contender.

6. Reds- New look Reds starting to jell. Gehrig
tearing up the NL

7. Indians- solid team on the brink of making another
run. Matter of time.

8. Marlins- Team is 6 games over .500 and Babe Ruth is
hitting .210 with 4 Homers and 13 RBI. Think he won't
break loose? Hmm is he on the trade block? :)

9. Dodgers- Long stretch of winning should continue
but age will be a factor and this might be the last hurrah
as the Division is getting tougher.

10. Expos- The Expos could surprise this year if the
Bullpen delivers. P Josh Beckett could finally have
that breakout year

11. Pirates- Pirates have been out the gate fast
before. Could this be the year they keep it going?

12. Cardinals- Pitching and Defense are there. Will
the Hitting be strong enough with the loss of Nettles
for a good portion of the season? Could we see
prospect 3B Clete Boyer soon?

13. Tigers- Nice start for the Tigers. Terry has done
a good job transforming this team. 1b Cooper and Vet
Fred Lynn have had great starts

14. A's- Team over .500 and in a Division with the
Rangers and Mariner says a lot. Team might be only a
player or two away form being a factor. A 5th starter
looks to be a need.

15. Giants- Team is on the upswing and that trend
should continue if the hiting improves and OF Bobby
Abreu is due for a hot streak.

16. Brewers- you can win with pitching and the Brewers
are proving that again. So far the pitching has
combined with timely hitting.

17. Astros- Sam has transformed his team in many ways
over the years and he has a record of getting the most
out of his personal and filling a need. So far this
years team has pitching as a strength but will he have
enough hitting?

18. Rockies- Team has outscored their opponents by 30
runs and still remain under .500. If they scoring
trend continues the Rockies should be in the NL West
race for the duration but they have to stay healthy.

19. Red Sox- A few of the new players haven't found a
comfort zone yet and need to rebound. The Pitching is
good enough to win the AL East like last season so
maybe when the weather heats up the hitting will as
well.

20. White Sox- Rough start could of sank this team for
another season but the team has come on of late. I
think it is a matter of time before this team arrives.
To bad it's in the AL Central.

21. Braves- Team is underachieving. Hard to get a
handle on why as this team has some talent

22. O's- The rebuilding process has begun. It will
take time.

23. Royals- Royals have had a pitching meltdown and
that is with Rogers Clemns having a great start. Can
they recover?

24. Cubs- Pitching is still the achilles heel of this
team. Mark has tried to assemble a staff but can't
seem to have any luck. Could Wrigley be a factor?

25. Mets- Could their be any truth to the rumor that
instead of Cork in the bats they Mets have wood putty?
The lack of power hurts the hitting and so far the pen
hasn't done the job for the pitching.

26. Padres- Young pitchers starting to show thier
stuff but the lack of hitting isn't helping them.

27. Jays- Rebuilding process continues but they have
been competitive.

28. Angels- Pitchers Bender and Lawrence are a
combined 8-3. The rest of the staff are 6-27. Looks
like the team hits only when those two are pitching.

Oh and a reminder too owners. If a player has the
dreaded "Bruised Heel" injury, report it to Jeff and
the length of time for that injury will be reduced by
67%

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Top 10 first Basemen in Habla 2029













1. Lou Gehrig (CIN) Last Ranked-1

Lou Gehrig still has it all. He can still hit for average (career .347), still hit for power (670 career HR), still run the bases (342 career SB), and still field (.986 fielding). Lou is one of the most valuable players in Habla. Having switched teams, he is now dominating in the NL Central for the Reds.

2. Ted Kluzewski (BOS) LR-5

A former first overall pcik, Kluz punds the ball regularly as a flat out run producer. Still only 29, he has a lot of time left.

3. Luke Easter (BOS) LR-4

Last year it was the Twins who had both the 2nd and 3rd First Basemen in the league. This season it's the Red Sox. These two make up the bulk of Boston's power hitting/run producing core. What a scary pair for a pitcher to face.

4. Harmon Killabrew (OAK) LR-7

Harmon has moved up quite a few spots by simply continuing to do what he does. When others retired, Harmon slipped up to 4. A great power hitter like him is valuable.

5. Derek Lee (TEX) LR-NR

D Lee came out of nowhere last year as a rookie and won the ROY and even got some votes for MVP. 2nd in the AL in HR only to Gehrig, Lee represents the next generation of great first basemen.

6. David Ortiz (SF) LR-NR

Ortiz, though has been criticized for being slow and a poor defender, shows what he can do in the batters box. With more than 200 HR already, he should continue to rack them up for a long time.

7. Tony Perez (KC) LR-NR

Perez has been a central part of the Royals, the team that won the World Series 2 years ago, for a decade. A leader in the clubhouse and on the field, Perez sets the bar high and gets it done.

8. Gil Hodges (TEX) LR-6

Hodges is one of the oldest on this list, but he is still delivering the goods. Closing in on 400 HR and currently tied for 6th among active players in AVG in the AL, Hodges is continuing to contribute in a loaded lineup.

9. Raphael Palmiero (CLE) LR-NR

Another newby to the list, Palmiero underperformed for the first few years of his career, struggling with both average and power. The last 2 years, though, Raph has started the juice, which has translated to more homers and a higher average.

10. Will Clark (SEA) LR-10

"Will the Thrill" continues to set the mark for contact hitting first basemen. But he's not slouch in the power department either. Two seasons ago Clark delivered his best season ever smashing 39 homers and 138 RBI.

Honorable Mention: Kent Hrbek FLA, Hank Greenburgh OAK, and Eddie Morgan COL.

Monday, August 07, 2006

Who They Should Have Taken?: 2020

We are introducing a new segment to the Blog site today called "Who They Should Have Taken." We will look at a spicific ammy draft and redo the top 10 picks looking at how the players turned out. This segment is a lot of fun for draft junkies like us. We have all taken a chance on a player and had them turn out as a bust. We have also all had a guy turn out better than expected and got lucky. If only we could see into the future, right? Well, today we will re-draft for the top 10 teams with 10 years of forsight while we offer commentary the whole way. We also have a few awards to give out for each draft at the end. Here we go.

Here
is the link to the Draft file.

The First Overall Pick

Team: San Francisco Giants

Who they picked: P Josh Beckett

Beckett was the hands down favorite for the top pick. We don't fault the Giants at all. Who doesn't like a hard throwing young pitcher with a 90 FB and 2 other pitches in the 70's? If the giants new on Draft day that Beckett would end up with a career high of 12 wins after playing 8 seasons, things might have gone different.

Who they should have picked: P Zach Grienke

Grienke was picked 2nd by the Phillies and has been to the World Series 4 times. Granted, Philly has a great supporting cast, but he is certainly a big part of the success. Grienke has had 3 seasons with an ERA under 3.00. We feel that the Giants would have been much happier making Grienke their first round pick.


The Second Overall Pick

Team: Philadelphia Phillies

Who They picked: P Zach Grienke

As we just stated priviously, we think Grienke was the best player in this draft as we look back. That is why Philly did great by selecting him 2nd overall and building their rotation with him on board.

Who they should have picked: C Joe Mauer

Since Grienke was taken first overall, the Phillies are left to take C Joe Mauer. If I was to tell you that you could draft a great young catcher with a good bad and great defense, like mauer, and then was to tell you that their would not be a catcher nearly as good as him in a draft for the next decade, you would probably jump all over him. We think that is wise.

The Third Overall Pick

Team: Kansan City Royals

Who they Picked: C Joe Mauer

As we just mentioned, Mauer is great and was a great pick. A certain AL West GM was praying Mauer would fall to #8, and was a bit heated when he did not. In the end, the Royals made a great pick nabbing Mauer so high.

Who they should have taken: P Josh Beckett

Mauer was a great pick, but in our little game he has already been taken. That is why the Royals will settle for Beckett. Beckett would have been a disappointment at #1, where you need to get an ace, but at #3, he is not a horrible find. A career ERA of 3.61 is nothing to gripe at.


The Fourth Overall Pick

Team: Cincinatti Reds

Who they picked: 2B BJ Upton

Upton was a solid pick at 4. He had all of the necessities of a top tier middle infielder. We feel, though, that there are better players on the board. He was a bit of a late bloomer and had a rough first few years.

Who they should have picked: P Brandon Webb

Webb would have been a very solid pick right here. A consistently solid 3 or 4 starter with a career ERA of 4.06 and a winning percentage of .684 and a Cy Young Candidate 2 seasons ago, Webb would have been a great rotation guy for the Reds.

The Fifth Overall Pick

Team: New York Yankees

Who they picked: P Roy Oswalt

It is time for our first award to be handed out...the bust of the draft. When you pick a pitcher 5th overall, you don't expect him to have a career ERA of 4.68 and a losing record. Again, we don't fault the team, we fault the player. Everyone expected Oswalt to be great. Unfortunatley, expectations are sometimes never met.

Who they should have picked: 1B Hank Greenberg

Greenburg tuned out to be a good first basemen who regularly hits 25 or 30 homers a year. That is hard to pass up at this point of the draft. Greenburg would have been a good middle of the lineup guy for the Yankees.

The Sixth Overall Pick

Team: Oakland A's

Who they picked: 1B Hank Greenberg

As we just mentioned, Greenberg has been steady eddie for the A's. They made a great pick nabbing him 6th.

Who they should have picked: 2B BJ Upton

Since Greenberg is gone, the A's take BJ Upton. though he started off slow, Upton has hit .300 or better the last 2 seasons and stole 46 bases last year. He has turned into a very good everyday second baseman now for the Red Sox.

The Seventh Overall Pick

Team: Milwakee Brewers

Who they picked: P Brandon Webb

Webb was a great pick at 7. At the time, Webb was seen as the last of the top tier pitchers in this draft. The Brew Crew did a good thing by nabbing him. the only unfortunate part was that they traded him before he was able to pitch for them.

Who they should have picked: P Scott Shields

Since Webb is gone, Shields is the next best. Shields is almost worth taking just for his stellar rookie season in 2026. Nonetheless, he has been a bit up and down since then, but he has had several good years and now has a career 3.82 ERA.

The Eighth Overall Pick

Team: Texas Rangers

Who they picked: P Scott Shields

Again, Shields turned out pretty good and was a pretty good pick. They too traded him before they new what they had.

Who they should have taken: RP Mike Timlin

Some think taking a reliever this high would be crazy, but timlin turned out to be one of the best. He has won several Fireman awards and is always a candidate. He was drafted by the Rangers later in this draft, and had a lot of good years in the pen before going to Florida, where he continues to pitch well. In a time where good relief help is rare, Timlin would have been a good pick.

The Ninth Overall Pick

Team: Colorado Rockies

Who they picked: P Jason Marquis

Another Candidate for bust of the draft, Marquis has never been confused for a top tier pitcher. A career 4.49 ERA and only 1 season with an ERA under 4.00 is not what you want out of your 9th pick.

Who they should have picked: 1B Justin Morneau

Morneau is a candidate for steal of the draft, having been drafted 19th and has put up very solid numbers as a first baseman. The Rangers may have taken him at 8, but they already had a good first baseman. This allows Morneau to fall to 9th.

The Tenth Overall Pick

Team: Boston Red Sox

Who they picked: P Tomo Okha

Okha has been decent in 2 seasons in the bigs, and was not a bad pick here, but there was someone who turned out to be better.

Who they should have picked: 2B Scott Hairston

Hairston has been a bit streaky in his career, but hitting .330 last season shows what he can do. A great contact style second baseman, Hairston puts a lot of balls in play and has been valuable for his team. The Red Sox would have benefitted from his bat in their lineup.

Draft Awards

Steal of the Draft: RP Michael Tejera

Drafted in the 5th round, he was a very strong Rookie of the Year Candidate and Fireman of the Year Candidate last year (2028). Who would have thought that the A's could get so much for $2?

Bust of the Draft: P Roy Oswalt

As mentioned above, for a guy with such great expectations and the 5th pick, you expect more than an ERA near 5 and a losing record. Oh well, there is one in every draft.

Best Name: Chin Feng Chen

The Brewers picked him in the 3rd...I'm guessing just for his name. Chen still plays for the Brewers AAA affiliate.

Player highlight: 2B Danny Garcia

Selected 21st overall by the White Sox, Garcia only played in the bigs from 2022-2025 hitting .201 in 179 career abs. Garcia, currently out of baseball, has squandered the money received from his first and only big league contract. He is currently an assistant manager at a Chicago Burger King.

Draft Score

This is something I made up to see how well the league did drafting the top 10. Each spot a player was away from our rankings is 1 point. If they draft a guy that we feel is just outside the top 10 we add 5 points, way outside the top 10 we add 10 points. If the bust of the draft was in the top 10, we add 15 points. The lower the score, the better the draft was.

This drafts score was 41. It will be interesting to see as we go on what a good score is.

Fun Facts

Only 7 of 28 1st round picks remain on the team that drafted them.

From the best we can tell, this draft produced 3 firemen of the Year (Timlin, Wheeler, and Williamson), 1 Batting Title (Mauer), and 1 Rookie of the Year (Shields).

3 Championship rings are Represented in the first round (Webb, Timlin, and Mauer)

Top 10 Catchers in Habla 2029

We have decided to once again take a look at the best players at each position in Habla. We did this 2 seasons ago, and a few players have retired, and youngsters have gotten better, so it is time to do it again. This is a fun way to get discussions going about the league and about players that at times get overlooked. We expect there to be disagreements, and that is fine. We feel that it is a good way to get discussions going. Our criteria include ratings, stats, career achievements etc., but the primary questioned we asked about each of these guys was "Who would I want during a playoff run?" And, honestly, we hope these guys are in order of value, that if you were in a division race in September, who would you want on your team? So, please comment on what we got right and what we got wrong. It makes it a lot more fun to dialogue. Without further ado, the Top 10 Catchers in Habla.
*Click on players name for career stats and ratings.
**You can see where each player was ranked on the list last time by their name.











1. Crash Davis (LAD) Last Ranked-4

Had arguably his best season at age 36, hitting .332 and blasting 35 homers to jump 3 spots on the list, should easily surpass 450 career longballs this season.

2. Roy Campanella (SEA) LR-1

So far his play with the Mariners has been below his usual standards, but, with over 400 career homeruns, he is still dangerous, and the previous owner of the top spot will not fall far.

3. Joey Mauer (KC) LR-3

Won the AL batting title 2 years ago, and had his first 20 dinger season a year ago. Still just 25, he has many great seasons left in his career.

4. Brandon Inge (CIN) LR-2

Now has over 250 homers in his career and nearly drove in 100 runs in 2027.

5. Matthew Lecroy (PIT) LR-8

Crash Davis was the only catcher to hit more homeruns over the past 2 seasons than LeCroy, including 37 in 2027.

6. Bill Dickey (DET) LR-7

Outstanding fielder, with a consistently solid bat, hopes to continue strong career with Oakland.

7. Cooper Walker (CHA) LR-6

Posted career highs in RBIs (78) and runs scored (63) last season.

8. Javier Cardona (HOU) LR-NR

Just traded to Colorado, he hit .308 with 19 homers last season.

9. Josh Phelps (CHN) LR-NR

Pure power hitter who left the yard 29 times last season, but will never be confused for a gold glover.

10. Bobby Hall (MIL) LR-NR

Career .294 hitter, mashed 24 homeruns in 2027.

Honorable Mentions: Ozzie Virgil MTL, Jason Phillips SF, Jesse Gonder FLA,

Saturday, August 05, 2006

ROY Candidates 2029

It is that time once again to report on the top Rookie of the Year candidates. We are proud to note that who we ranked as our top candidate last year in the AL won the award, and our third highest candidate won in the NL. We were pleased at our accuracy. Maybe we will start taking bribes as to who we rank high and who we don't;) This year, however, seems to be a down year for rookies. Where some years we have had 10 good rookies competing for 5 spots, this year we struggled to find 5 in each league worth mentioning. Nonetheless, here are your top ROY candidates for 2029. Please comment on your thoughts and lets get a discussion going. (Thanks to Steve PGH for helping compile this list)

AL ROY Candidates

P Chris Short (Tigers)- Short has been a great addition to good rotation, notching a 2-2 record with a 3.66 ERA and 4 out of 6 QS.

RP Wilfredo Ledezma (Royals)- Has been awesome in relief and should be starting more after doing well in his first start in the bigs. A 1.95 ERA in 37 innings is hard to find among big leaguers, and he is a rookie.

DH Bobby Bonilla (Brewers)- Bonilla has added his bat to a solid lineup to help with some pop...and he is doing well, hitting .289 with 4 HR, 15 RBI, and 15 R so far.

RP Charlie Shaffernoth (Orioles)- In 23 IP in relief he has a 2.35 ERA and a 1-0 record. With teams always struggling to find relief pitching, having a rookie perform like this is a huge bonus.

LF Juan Encarnacion (Angels)- Not starting full time, but getting a lot of at bats, he is contributing with a .314 average, 4 HR, and 13 RBI so far this season.

Others in the running: RP Joe Blanton (Angels), RP Jim Kane (White Sox)


NL ROY Candidates

2B Rickie Weeks (Pirates)- He is hitting .299 with 23 runs and 10 SB's through 30 games. Looks like he could be a great and versitile middle infielder.

CF Kenny Lofton (Mets)- He has a pretty good batting average (.296), but he strikes out a lot (34). In 26 games, though, he has stolen 15 bases and scored 19 runs and he could be a nightmare on the basepaths if he can stable out his average.

3B Wes Helms (Cubs)- Also struggles with AVG and K's (.220 and 33 in 32 games), but has great power hitting potential. If he got hot and hit 25 or 30 homers, he could give Weeks a run for his money.

Thats about it from the NL guys. Others we looked at were Jay Bell (SD) and Luis Rivas (LA) but they don't really have a shot. NL guys, if you have a good prospect you really want to win ROY, this may be a good year to bring him up.